Been driving myself mad studying the run-in and drawn a few conclusions.
I think 90pts is the benchmark to win the league, as it’s panned out like this in previous seasons…
2008/09
1 Manchester United 90
2 Liverpool 86
3 Chelsea 83
4 Arsenal 72
2007/08
1 Manchester United 87
2 Chelsea 85
3 Arsenal 83
4 Liverpool 76
2006/07
1 Manchester United 89
2 Chelsea 83
3 Liverpool 68
4 Arsenal 68
Chelsea won in 2005/06 & 2004/05 with a whopping 91 & 95 pts, last time we got 90pts was the invincible season (2003/04) 26-12-0. Hmmmm.
So even if we win all our final 13games we will have 88pts, not enough. I think realistically speaking I see no reason why we shouldn’t win ALL our home games, starting with Liverpool tomorrow (others Burnley, Fulham, Man City, Sunderland, West Ham, Wolves) then I think we will draw a couple of away games, possibly Birmingham and dare I say it Spurs. Again realistically speaking I see no reason why any of the others: Blackburn, Hull, Stoke, Wigan should cause us problems.
So my prediction for us, 84pts and as long as we get that as a minimum we have done ourselves justice, but it’s a tall order! This will be two wins short of the season target, we have lost six games already and looking at those last six seasons the winners have only ever lost at the most FIVE. So it’s all very marginal for us, but just ever so slightly lacking. Devils advocate but perhaps avoiding one loss or turning a couple of draws in to wins may have clinched it, we’ll see at the end and reflect back.
So for the magical 90pts, Man U will need 11wins 1draw and can even afford to lose a game. Chelsea could also afford a loss and TWO draws as long as they pick up 10wins, so neither scenario unrealistic.
We’re doomed.
Man u have been through their dodgy patch, they have hit a bit of form now and Rooney is on fire.
Chelsea do look the most solid, but before us they drew 1-1 with Hull and got a near on last minute winner Vs Burnley (they were far from convincing in either game) they are due a blip more than anyone, starting with their game tomorrow Vs Everton would be nice.
I guess from now until the end of the season, first one to blink loses!
This will take no less than EVERYONE taking maximum points from EVERY game and let’s see who loses first?
If that’s us tomorrow, I give up!
